What a weekend. It felt like the longest weekend of my life and by far the most expensive, but what a time to be alive. A truly epic battle of power and will. After going down huge the first day, I rallied back to come out of the weekend even from gambling in Vegas (thanks to a few lucky spins on roulette) Now, with what felt like 1,000 games of college basketball behind us we are left with eight plays on Thursday and Friday to hammer away. Let’s roll.
Texas Tech vs. Michigan (-1.5, Over Under 124.5)
This is the play of the year. Michigan sucks and will probably go on multiple six- minutes periods with no points scored. That said I love Texas Tech every which way here: First half, Moneyline, plus the points. Hammer the model here. Sharp money has been on Texas Tech all week to bring the spread down to 1.5 and I love it. As for the over/ under both these teams are defensive powerhouses and Michigan does struggle to score, but I love the over here. 124 is just too low. Michigan will struggle to score, but all we need is a 70 piece form Texas Tech and Michigan to scrape together 50 something points. This game is too easy, and my backtested model is all over it.
Pick: Texas Tech +1.5, over 124.5
Flordia State vs. Gonzaga (Over/ Under 148)
Gonzaga’s offense is hot hot hot right now, and a 148 over has significant value for a team whose O/U’s have been in the high 150’s/ 160’s all year. It makes sense since they’re playing a physical ACC team in Flordia State, but Flordia State has average 83 points since the tournament started. Both these teams matchup well as big physical teams, so I have no feel for the side here with Gonzaga getting 8 points, but there will be scoring left and right.
Pick: Over 148
Oregon vs. Virginia (1H -5, Full game -8.5)
Every professional gambler will tell you to never do this, and I rarely do, but here it is just too easy! The over/under is set at 120 for this game, mostly because these teams are so slow. That said there are going to be limited possessions in the first half. My projections show the Ducks keeping it close in the first half before the Cavaliers blow them out in the second.
Pick: Oregon 1H +5, Virginia -8.5
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