These next three weeks is the best stretch of the year. Wild NCAA basketball from sun-up to sun-down is literally what I live for. I decided to go to Las Vegas this weekend for the first time during the tournament and am prepared to lose all of my lucrative blogger’s salary.
12 New Mexico State vs. 5 Auburn (-6.5)
This is a significant gamble, but I am firing New Mexico State ML in a big upset to start off Thursday. This is somewhat of a wild move to go against Auburn after their impressive showing in the SEC conference tournament, but my reasoning consists of Auburn being a hit or miss team that lives and dies by the three. All it takes is one game where they are off, and they’re done for, and I see value in that for the round of 64. New Mexico State is no scrub, they’re 30-4 and haven’t lost a game since January. This is a longshot, but it’s March, and while the trendy 12/5 seed upset is Oregon beating Wisconsin, I think this has legs.
Pick: New Mexico State Money Line
14 Yale vs. 3 LSU (-7.5)
LSU has not been the same since there head coach was suspended. They have seriously struggled, failing to win one game in the SEC tournament. Yale is a bunch of nerds, but they’re some dangerous nerds. LSU is the only 3 seed not favored by more than 10 points. Since 2015, three seeds favored by less than ten points in the first round are 12-9 ATS. In the last four tournaments, at least one three seed has been upset, and this year I’m riding with Yale as that dark horse to take them down. Take the points and sprinkle a little on that Money Line.
Pick: Yale +7.5
15 Montana vs. 2 Michigan (-16)
Watch out for Montana in this game. Last year when Michigan and Montana played in the first round, the Wolverines cruised to an easy 61-47 win. This year all of Montana’s core players returned, and a hungry Grizley runs faster than a Wolverine that can’t score the basketball. I would not be surprised if Montana gave Michigan some problems. In the last seven years, a 15 seed had upset a two seed four times, the most recent came in 2016 when Middle Tennessee State shot Michigan State out of the gym. I love Montana getting all 16 points here, just enough to sprinkle a little bit on that +1050 money line.
Pick: Montana +16, ML
9 Baylor vs. 8 Syracuse (-2)
If there is one thing I have picked up in my 20+ years of watching March Madness, it is that you never, ever bet against the Orange in the opening weekend. Every year Jim Boeheim has his team ready to go, and come March their zone is always rolling. I’ll leave it at that.
Pick: Syracuse -2
12 Oregon vs. 5 Wisconsin (-1)
Everybody and their mother is on Oregon in this game. They won the Pac-12, and now everyone thinks they are the best thing since sliced bread! Well, I’m not fucking buying it. My high school basketball team could have won the Pac-12 tournament this year with their poor level of play. I don’t care that these guys have won eight Pac-12 games in a row. They could have gone undefeated in this year, and I would still bet against them against anyone in the tournament. Never bet on a Pac-12 team in March. I understand that everybody loves betting on a 12 seed in the first round, so do I, but this is a sucker bet. Wisconsin might only score 50 points, but they’ll win by 10. Book it.
Pick: Put the house on Wisconsin -1
7 Washington vs. 10 Utah State (-2.5)
Just as I said about Oregon, you are a lunatic if you bet Washington. These guys lost to Cal at the end of Febuary and have not been the same since. Washington plays a poor man Syracuse zone and struggles to score consistently. They were lucky to make it to the Pac-12 championship and even more fortunate to make it to the NCAA tournament. If it were up to me, no Pac-12 team would be allowed in the round of 64. That said, Utah State is coming off an all-time year. They went 27-6 and dominated their conference all season long. They’re entering March hot on a ten game winning streak. March is all about hitting your stride at the right time, and I have Utah State as a team poised to make a run into the second weekend.
Pick: Utah State -2.5
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