Yesterday was on me. I went a miserable 1-11 in my book, which is honestly pretty impressive. Spinzone, most professional sports gamblers could not go 1-11 if they tried! That said I’m statistically due today — a simple case of regression to the mean. I lost myself in action yesterday, all season I have been hammering the under, resulting in unprecedented winnings. Yesterday, I went with all the favorites and overs. Stupid, stupid, stupid!!
So many winners today, it’s crazy, hammer away.
Auburn vs. UNC (-5.5, O/U 165)
I’m not touching the side in this game, but I’m hammering this over 100 times out of 100. Every time I have watched Auburn there’s electricity running through their veins and UNC is the same way. They both go as fast as possible, and Auburn pulls three-pointers with the shot clock at 25 seconds. I’m not saying this is a smart bet, I’m telling you it’s a must bet.
You don’t want to be the guy by the water cooler with the under when the game ends up in the 100’s. The only way I see this not hitting, and there’s a good chance this happens, is if Auburn misses all their three’s, and UNC gets out to a big lead. If that happens, the pace will drastically slow down, and the over will be done for. I know this goes against everything I just said, but grow a dick and take the over.
Pick: Over 165
Virginia Tech vs. Duke (-7, O/U 142)
Duke is a sucker bet here. After almost getting beat in the round of 32, the public thinks they’ll bounce back. Think again. Virginia Tech is going to go under ever screen to make them shoot a hundred three’s. Duke is shooting only 30% from three, which is tied for 329th in the nation. Sharps are also hammering Virginia Tech, the Hokies are only receiving 43% of bets, but control over 60% of money wagered. Sound the alarm; I’m even sprinkling Virginia Tech ML +270. I love Hokies plus the number here, and I also love the under for a couple of reasons. Watching Virginia Tech is like watching paint dry. They rank 332nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. And, as I said earlier, VT’s zone is going to give Duke some severe problems. According to Kenpom, Virginia Tech ranks second in the defensive three-point rate at 50.4% (3PA/FGA).
Pick: VT +7, Under 142
LSU vs. Michigan State (-6.5, O/U 149)
I’m fading the public hard here. 60% of bets are on Michigan State, which makes no sense to me. Cool, they have Tom Izzo, that’s awesome they still can’t score the basketball. LSU has a lethal offense and I don’t see how Michigan State is going to slow them down or keep up with them. I understand that a talented head coach is vital because college basketball players are idiots, but I think the public is looking too far into this one. In a competitive SEC this year LSU only lost one game by more than six points, that came back on November 25th. This number makes no sense to me, which mean Michigan State will probably win by 20.
I’m also taking the under because there is no way Michigan State can’t score 70 points in this game. They Suck!
Pick: LSU +6.5, Under 149
Houston vs Kentucky (-2.5, O/U 133.5)
The public is all over Houston; Ha! Give me Calipari and the Wildcats. I was remarkably split on this game until I saw the majority of bets placed on Houston. The Cougars are also getting some big sharp money, but I’m not betting against Calipari against an unproved Houston team. As for the total, Kentucky has shot 35.7% from three this year, and Houston has a perimeter scoring rate of 35.8%. Both teams are defensively focused and physcial teams. This game is tough, but I like the Wildcats and the under.
Pick: Kentucky -2.5, Under 133.5
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