What it do bayyybeeee! We’re finally back, and I couldn’t be hornier. I can’t remember the last time I woke up this happy, but the dog days of summer are over, and NFL football is back. Whether we have a good season or a bad season, I am confident we won’t be losing as often as we all did during baseball season. Bluntly put, I don’t think there is a worse time of year than after the NBA and NHL playoffs end, and we’re stuck with just Baseball. Furthermore, there is no worse time of the year for your beautiful girlfriend to leave you a cuck for some “scrawny little fuck” Credit Danny Amendola (cc: my ex- Girlfriend).
That all said, I can’t remember a week 1 where I saw the board this clearly. Don’t be afraid to fade yourself.
Green Bay Packers (+3) vs. Chicago Bears
I know everyone is highly bullish on the Bears and Trubisky this season, but I am not part of that majority. The Bears were +12 in turnover ratio last season which should regress this season. Obviously, their defense is tremendous, but the turnover rate the saw last season is not sustainable. As for their offense, Mitchell is the highest bet player to win the NFL MVP, a wild move by the public that I cannot understand.
On the other side, after missing the playoffs last year, I think the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are hungry this season. If you remember, last years opener the Packers got worked in the first half by the Bears on Sunday night. The spread was around Packers -8, and they came nowhere close to covering, in fact, they were lucky just to win. I think the Packers bounce back big this year, win this game outright, and steal the division late in the year. One last stat I will leave you with: Since 2003, underdogs in Week 1 Division games have gone 50-36-2 (58%) ATS. Go Pack go!
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Titans +5.5 is my lock of the week. The public LOVES the Browns this season. They’re probably the trendiest team in recent memory, and when you find a trendy team you fade the hell out of them! Tennesse is receiving only 30% of public bets, but hold 63% of the money wagered. Teams receiving <30% of bets in September are 145-119-3 (57%) ATS. Reverse line movement was also triggered as the spread moved from +5 to +5.5 despite 63% of sportsbooks liabilities on the Titans. Hammer hammer hammer Nashville!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins (+6.5)
My last winner of the week is Miami +6.5. No one likes Miami this season as they are receiving only 17% of public bets. The spread was bet from +3.5 all the way up to +6.5. Since 2003, teams that have become bigger favorites (-1 to -3) in week 1 have gone 48-64-1 (43%) ATS. I understand why the public loves Baltimore in this spot: the Dolphins are actively “tanking” this year. Good luck telling Football players who are risking their lives every week to tank the season and never bet against early-season Fitsmagic.
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