I am still reeling from last weekend when that old decrepit SOB Sebastian Janikowski provided all Cowboys and under backers with the worst bad beat cucking of all time. I mean 99/100 times that game is played Jano doesn’t tear his hamstring off the bone, kicks the extra point, and the Cowboys cover 2.5. Instead, that selfish scumbag ruins everything! Not to mention the Cowboys defenses easing up and just letting them score. As you can tell I am still now over it, but I went 2-1 on Sunday to make up for it. This week I am seeing the board better than any sharp in the market.
FADE THE PUBLIC.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, Over 57)
So excited about this game. The Colts are the hottest team in football right now going 10-1 in there last 11 games. My best bet here is the over. The Colts and Chiefs are two of the most electric offenses in the league. Andrew Luck has been on a tear during that eleven game period. They are averaging 27.45 points per game over those eleven games against defenses light years better than the Chiefs.
A narrative has been circulating the NFL stating that after losing Kareem Hunt the Chiefs not been the same offensive powerhouse. While they lost three of the last six games, they had no offensive problems scoring 35.33 points per game over that period.
While the Colts are young and missing a few pieces, the defense has been one of the best in the league over the second half of the season. However, this is a flawed statistic. Since week five when the Patriots shredded them for 38 points, the Colts haven’t played a respectable offensive team. Andrew Luck is the hottest stock on the market right now. Everyone thinks their win over the Texans is like beating the 2013 SF 49ers when in reality it’s more like beating an Alex Smith lead 2016 Chiefs team. History is against the Chief’s here, and so is the public, which is why I love it so much. Of over 24,000 bets on this game, 56% are on the Colts, who also control 67% of the money. Since 2002, QB’s making their playoff debut are 11-31-1 against the spread. Since 1970, the Chief’s are 3-17 in the playoffs against the spread and 0-9 at home. Lastly, in the past two years, underdogs are 14-1 against the spread in the playoffs. I love it. Patty is going to shred the Colts in a high scoring cold weather affair while Andrew Luck continues to bald.
PICK: Chiefs -5, over 57
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (-4)
The Chargers are the trendiest pick since guys in LA started wearing ripped jeans. 61% of the public is on the Bolts, and they control 71% of the total money. While that 10% increase would infer they are getting sharp money, I am not bitting the hook. I think this is a sucker line that Vegas can manipulate and leverage because of the impressive Chargers win last week.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Chargers are immensely talented and will keep this game close, but in the end, playing against Brady and Belichick in Foxborough will be too much for them. This season everyone is flipping back and forth on the Pats. After losing in week two and three to the Jags and Lions, every hot take idiot was ready to declare the dynasty over. They then rattled off six straight including wins against the Chiefs and the Bears. Then after losing again in back to back weeks against the Dolphins and Steelers, they were dead yet again. Don’t be fooled by the mainstream media’s obsession with the Chargers and doubt in the Patriots. While the Chargers are an incredible 8-0 when playing outside of California this year, they are not going into Foxborough and leaving with a win, nor are they covering.
PICK: Patriots -4
Philidelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints (-8, under 51)
After the Eagles lost to the Saints in week ten 41-8 everybody counted them out. With no hope in sight, the Eagles placed Carson Wentz on injured reserve and gave Big Dick Nick his starting job back. Since that game against the Saints they have gone 6-1 and after beating the Bears last weekend, I am fully on the dick train.
Every time I have bet against big dick I’ve lost. When he played the Atlanta Falcons in the 2017 divisional round, when he played in the 2017 conference championship, and in the 2017 Super Bowl when I had my mom’s mortgage on the Patriots. Even recently this year I had the Rams blowing them out in week 15, and the Bears cover 6.5 in wildcard weekend. I have been getting fucked left and right by this dick!
As a sharp I have two options here: I can continue to fade an elite dick, or finally, put an end to betting against the best postseason dick of all time. I chose the latter, and that’s why I am picking the Eagles to cover the eight points this weekend. I don’t love this one bit, the Saints are amazing and will shred the Eagles dismal secondary all game, but we just need a smig of big dick magic to cover the eight points, and I like those odds. Sharp betters have taken this number down from ten to eight from 55% of tickets accounting for 70% of the money placed on the Eagles. As much as I hate betting against the Saints at home, the numbers say hammer the birds.
Also, an astonishing number is the amount of money placed on the over in the game. Of over 16,000 tickets put on the total, 73% are on the under, which accounts for 97% of the money wagered! That is absurd. I’m going to ride with Vegas to have a big payday with the under because Vegas always wins. Fade the public.
PICK: Eagles +8, under 51
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7, Under 49.5)
While the game is in Los Angeles, this is a home game for the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is the best defense remaining in the playoffs, and who remembers the last time the Rams faced an elite defense in Chicago. Jarad Goff shat his pants and cost me my fantasy matchup posting -.56 points. This is what I envision playing out again this week. While it won’t be Bear weather in sunny Los Angeles, Goff will be running for his life all game. I don’t doubt the Rams will win this game with a few beautifully designed plays that beat the Cowboys D, but we’re betting the number here.
With Dak behind center the boys are limited on offense, but if they are effectively able to run the football and control the game clock, they will have a shot.
There is no question that the Rams defense has holes. Despite signing several high profile defensive players in the offseason, they have not played as a united force consistently. Resulting in them being ranked the 19th best defense by pro football focus. I don’t care how many first round picks they have on the defensive line, Zeke is getting outside, and turning the corner on the Rams all Saturday.
PICK: Cowboys +7, under 49.5
volkszn.com 