New year same Volk. The past few weeks of unemployment have been quasi-busy with the holidays, and while I wrote up my picks, I forgot to publish them for all three of you (my mom, girlfriend, and best friend) to read. But with the sadness from the end of the regular season were back in the saddle with four winners this weekend.
Philidelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears (-6.5, under 41)
I love this spread. I get that it is the playoffs and these games usually end up close, but the Eagles stink so freaking bad! I mean they stink! Big dick Nick has played electric the past few weeks to get them into the playoffs. I would have never imagined he could beat the Rams and Texans in back to back weeks, but he, and, his big dick got the job done.
However, that ends this Sunday. A common statistic Eagles backers are referencing to give their pick merit is: the Eagles have only lost twice this season by more than 6.5 points. While this may be true, it does not tell the full story. The Eagles faced six playoff teams this season: the Saints, Texans, Rams, Colts, and the Cowboys twice. The point differential on those six games was -41. The Eagles schedule this season was a cakewalk, and they could barely make it into the playoffs. The Bears are going to live in the backfield and bring down Nick Foles by his big shaft. The Bears are 12-4 ATS on the year and an NFL best 7-1 ATS at home. The forecast for Sunday is a brick 38 degrees with fourteen miles an hour winds. You’re out of your god damn mind if you bet against them in Bear weather.
I also love the under in this game for one reason: Tony Corrente. Who is that you might ask. Corrente is the lead crew official for Sunday’s Eagles/ Bears game. In Corrente’s career, the under has hit 56.6% of the time (92-72-3) The Bears defense, in Bear weather, against the egregious scumbags from Philidelphia? Hammer it. Parley the points with the under. Bear Down.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2, under 43)
Two run-heavy defensive teams. This game won’t be a lot of fun to watch, but it will an easy win. Typically I would look at this game and say there’s no way a Dak Prescott led team should be favored over Russell Wilson. However, neither quarterback is going to be the deciding factor in this matchup. Both sides have gotten this far from their run-first offense and gritty defense and the reality of this game is that the Cowboys have overall better playmakers outside of the quarterback position. Their defense, run game, and wide receivers are better. The only way the Seahawks have a chance is if Russell Wilson shreds them with his legs. But I cannot imagine that happening with Leighton Vander Esch spying him all game. This game with has three and out monstrosity written all over it. A few first down runs and then punt, punt, punt, punt, punt. Hammer the under as well. Cowboys 17- Seahawks 10
LA Chargers (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Not to brag, but in week 16 I had the Ravens ML in Los Angeles. My reason for this was because the Chargers were coming off an emotional win in Kansas City and would not have the drive or focus to turn around and beat the Ravens. I was right and the Ravens beat the Chargers 22-10. It is hard to win in this league, and even harder to beat a team twice in three weeks. The Ravens won by twelve points on two flukey plays. First Lamar Jackson hit a 68-yard touchdown pass (No fucking way he completes a pass farther than 10 yards this game). Second, they returned a fumble for a touchdown. In this weeks matchup, I would guess a fumble recovery for a TD would have better odds than another 60+ yard touchdown pass by Lamar Jackson. The Chargers have the points, a better quarterback, and the better personnel. It’s a hard task travelling over three different time zones to play the early window on Sunday, but the Chargers are 7-1 on the road this season, and there’s no way Lamar Jackson beats Phil Doctor twice in three weeks.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (-1)
We’re betting the number here. At three point I would have been all over the Colts. In week four, the Texans beat the Colts by three points, and in week thirteen, the Colts beat the Texans by three points.
This is a spot where you have to roll with the home team. Home field advantage is known to be worth three points in Vegas. So basically, what they are saying is that when this spread first came out, on a neutral field this game would be a pick ’em, however, with the spread movement down to Houston -1, Vegas is implying the Colts would be a two-point favorite if this game were played in let’s say Australia. Cool, hook ’em. The Colts are a year away from a playoffs run. They had an impressive season thus far, and with mass young talent on the O- line and defense they will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. But this is the Texans chance. The Texans have been in this Saturday afternoon window three of the past four years with some of the worst starting quarterbacks the game has ever seen. Now, with Desean Watson under center and their elite defense still intact, watch out for the Texans to make a deep run in the playoffs. Their odds to win the super bowl are currently 30-1.
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