There’s not much for me to say of my poor performance from last week. It is a testament to the phrase, “This is a hard league to win in.” That quote could not be more accurate, but I did not set myself up for success last week. Betting on a 4-6-1 Green Bay Packers team to beat another NFL team by more than 14 points was ludicrous. Hindsight is of course 20-20, but looking back I am disgusted with myself. As gamblers, just as stockbrokers, our job is to find value. We are forced to throw away all preconceived notions of what we think to be true and must work hard to find out what is true.
This week I took that approach and here is what I came up with.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
The Titans are still overvalued in the market based merely off their win over the Patriots three weeks ago. Since that win, they are 0-2 and have lost by an average of 17.5 points! That is not a team I would trust to win by more than five points. The Jaggernauts have not lived up to their preseason hype that came along with their trendy nickname ‘Sacksonville.’ They were forced to bench the quarterback they just paid a boatload of money to. However, their defense looks like it is finally back on track and with the return of Leonard Foreskin. They are posed to control the time of possession and keep this game close. I told myself I would not bet on the Jags again this year after getting burned by them against the Cowboys, but I see a lot of value in this spot against the Titans.
Here’s a stat for you: Since 2003, teams that have allowed no points the previous week (Jags) are 43-52-1 (45%) against the spread their next game. Ok, Cool. Hook ’em. This stat means nothing to me. You could tell me they are 100% ATS, nothing. I hate stats like these. People think they are applicable across different teams, idiotic. I love meaningful stats, but people who run with bogus stats like this should go back to preschool. Morons. Jacksonville
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (+4)
This is an interesting game that has been heavily bet on by sharps. On first glance, I love the way the Broncos are trending. Their backfield is unstoppable with Phillip Lindsy (Who was in my graduating class from the Harvard of the mountain west time zone) and Royce Freeman. Their defense is also playing exceptionally well lead upfront by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. However, while only 31% of all bets are placed on the Broncos, 61% of the total money on the game is placed on the 49ers. This has changed the line from 5.5 points to 4. I know the Niners were blown out by the Seahawks last week, but there was more to that story than the final score. The 49ers were able to move the ball up and down the field all game, and had they been able to limit their turnovers in the red zone they could have had a chance. The 49ers downfall is their secondary, but the Broncos passing game is their downfall especially with the loss of Emmanuel Sanders. Play the points here.
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns (Pickem)
Is there a worse team in the NFL right now than the Carolina Panthers? They have lost four straight games after getting pummeled by the Steelers on Thursday night football. Over those four games, their defense is giving up an average of 31.5 points. Baker Mayfield and the Browns struggled last week facing a top- 10 defense in Houston, but against mediocre defenses, they have prospered. Also, the Panthers are saying Cam Neuton’s shoulder is fine, but I am not buying it. Watching him lose me money last Sunday his passes were fluttering out of his hand and moving so slowly I thought NFL RedZone was showing a slow-motion replay. He even had to be replaced for a last second hail mary attempt because he couldn’t throw the ball 50 yards. Their offense has turned to a one dimensional Christian McCaffrey show. If the Browns can limit McCaffrey to less than 200 total yards, they have a great chance to stomp of the Panthers throats.
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) vs. Houston Texans
The Colts have scored an average of a least 31 points every game this season before putting up a goose egg in Jacksonville last week. Even without scoring a single point all game they were still alive down to the final seconds’ thanks to an improved young defense. The Texans are arguably the hottest team in football winning their past nine games. Every week I think this is finally the game to end this winning streak and I think that again here against the Colts. Similar to winning nine straight games, the Texans are also 9-0 against the spread over those nine games. Maybe the Texans win this game, but not by more than a field goal; Colts cover late 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (-4)
Last week Aaron Rodgers dropped his pants and took a massive shit all over my ugly face. I have never seen Rodgers play such a horrible game. NFL Redzone didn’t even show this game until midway through the second quarter because it stunk so bad. That last drive Rodgers looked like Mark Sanchez, missing receivers by many feet and throwing the ball short to receivers. He literally looked like he wanted to lose that game, and that’s what I believe happened. Rodgers threw that game as 13.5 point favorites to prove a point and get his coach fired. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is a cocksucker scumbag, but he is also an awesome quarterback, and I will take a talented scumbag QB over a kissass shitty QB any day.
Back to the pick, the Falcons absolutely suck. Their defense has been ravaged by injuries, and with a recovering drug addict as offensive coordinator they cannot score in the red zone even with the best receiving core in the league. If my theory is correct that Rodgers lost last week on purpose to get Mike McCarthy, then the final hypothesis test to prove me right is if Aaron now goes back to being that bad bad man behind center. Bet on that.
Pitsburg Stealers (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
Another game that is being bet heavily by sharps, only 51% of bets are on the Raiders, but 81% of all the money bet is on the Raiders. As a result, the line has shifted 2.5 points from -13 to -10.5. For the first time, this season the Raiders offense looked in sync against the Chiefs last week and barring some typical bonehead Raider defensive penalties late in the game they had a chance to win. At 13 points I would love the Raiders here, but now that it is down to 10.5 I have to lay the points. The Steelers big-play offense is always a play away from six points, and you cannot trust the Raiders in this spot with such a significant line shift. If you got them at 13, good for you, but at 10.5 I’m eating the points and hoping for more dysfunction in Oakland.
LA Rams vs. Chicago Bears (+3)
This is my favorite bet of the weekend. I don’t believe I have ever won a bet on Sunday night football, but I will be wagering everything in my bank account of this one. What makes me even more confident is that the public is backing the Rams who control 77% of bets and 65% of the money. I love it. I don’t think the public has won a Sunday night game all year either. Sean McVay can use his brain to tell reporters a whole defensive scouting report as much as he wants (showoff) the game isn’t won from a coach memorizing how many interceptions the other team has. The Rams have taken a step back after that crazy game against the Chiefs. Chicago in the cold, at home, hammer it.
I fucking love these picks this week.
volkszn.com 