Last week Vegas took a massive beating. Of the 13 NFL games played, 11 of the teams the public majority bet on won against the spread. Vegas only profited on two unit last week: The Oakland Raiders who were three-point favorites and bet on by 71% of the public and the Dallas Cowboys who were four-point favorites and bet on by 65% of the public. Other than those two anomalies the public had a field day with Vegas in week 9. Hopefully, this luck carries into week 10, and below I have some locks to bury your bookmakers further.
Carolina Panthers (Moneyline +150) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Both these teams have been two of the most profitable this season with the Panthers covering their past three spread and the Steelers cover their last four. However, with the Steelers favored to win by 3.5 points on Thursday night, one of these streaks will come to an end. This line opened favoring the Steelers by 7 points. The public quickly took advantage that overvalued Steelers line pushing it down to 3.5, but Vegas opening it up with such a big spread scares me.
I get it, the Steelers are sexy with their All-Pro receiving core and the possible return of Le’Veon Bell, but I’m betting the Panthers here. Why? Because Cam is back and the Steelers will have no answers for stopping him. The best part of the Steelers defense is their pass rush. However, with Cam’s physicality, mobility, and a prolific offensive line I don’t anticipate them giving Cam much trouble tonight. Lastly, Antonio Brown was out late last night driving over 100 MPH early Thursday morning. He’s probably hung as shit and will be a step behind for today’s game.
Here’s a fun fact provided by The Action Network: When the total jumps by one or more points in a game where the total is set at 45 or more points between the weeks of 9 and 17, the under has hit 154-113-5 (58%) since 2003. Guess what, that stat doesn’t mean shit to me. People come up with all these arbitrage stats and think they are geniuses for it. Put that in context, and that stat is Fugaaaazi, Fugazi, its fucking fairy dust. The Panthers have the worst Red Zone defense in the league, and the Steelers have the best offense. Hammer the over as well.
Washington R-Words (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Alex Smith and the R-Words burned the fuck out of me last week against the Falcons. This whole year Washington has been killing me every time I bet against them, and the one time I pick them, they get obliterated. I thought their defensive front was supposed to be all time and with the presence of Clinton(s)- Dix returning to Washinton in their secondary I thought they would be able to shut down the explosive Falcon’s offense. I got smoked.
While the R-Words didn’t put up a good showing last week, I cannot believe they are underdogs against Fitstragic and the Bucs. For those of you who don’t rely on my advances statistics formulas, here is a stat that you can understand: The R-Words beat the Panthers 23-17, and the Bucs lost to the Panthers 42- 28. Simple math, R- Words by a million.
Besides that obvious reasoning, the Bucs have the worst secondary in the league, and while their offense has explosive potential, the Redskins are still a top-tier defensive team.
Green Bay (-10) vs. Miami Dolphins
You guys know my rule. After an NFL team is embarrassed on national television, the next week you always take them. Aaron Rodgers was humiliated last week as 41-year-old Tom Brady dismantled his team, and Rodgers had no answers for it on offense. The Dolphins are still likely stuck with Brocktober and guess what Brock, it’s not October anymore, and even if it was; you STUNK in October! The Dolphins have lost by ten or more points four times this season, to teams including the Bengals and Lions. Rodgers shows up here, Packers by 100.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders
When you lose to a third-string quarterback, there is nowhere to go but up. However, Jon Gruden proceeded to release the Raiders defensive captain, and now I cannot name one defensive player on the Raiders besides their creepy 2017 first round pick: Gareon Conley. Who, allegedly raped a woman just months before being drafted.
Anyways, the Chargers manhandled the Seahawks last week in Seattle. While the final score indicated they only won by a touchdown with a two-point conversion. The Chargers were in control of this game from the first possession, and if Phillip Rivers had an able kicker for extra points and field goals, they would have won by double digits.
Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets under 36.5
The God Damn Jets, these guys couldn’t score a touchdown in Miami last week, why would they be able to score one against a much better Buffalo defense? The over/under in this game is 36.5 points, and I can’t see any way this doesn’t hit. In the last three games the Bills have only scored 20 points, and in the Jets last two games, they have managed to score 16 points. Those five games added up doesn’t even cover this game total! Haha!! Free money, Vegas should have set the over at 10.
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