We are now one week away from the dreaded midway point of the 2018 NFL season. As we entered the Thursday night game, we have one person to thank for the easiest money maker of 2018: Von Miller.
How is that for advanced analytics.
Thursday night is a tricky game. Usually after a losing Sunday the previous week you’re telling yourself, “I will never bet again.” But then Thursday night rolls on around, and you (especially in a cringe-worthy game such as the Broncos vs. Cardinals) go ahead and bet because betting on football is incredible and we only get 16 of these Thursdays ever year.
According to The Action Network, 66% of the public bet the Broncos. However, fraudulent professional sports gambler Stu Feiner sold thousands of people his bet on the Arizona Cardinals. For this, Stu should be incarcerated. You’re telling me people paid this man for most likely the worst bet of the NFL season. This game was over six seconds into the game when Josh ‘Pick Dozen’ threw a pick-six on the first play from scrimmage. For those people who paid Mr. Feiner, all you had to do was watch the pregame show and see future HOF Linebacker Von Miller guarantee you a win. Stu Feiner should be prosecuted and banned from charging money for picks ever again.
Niners vs. Rams (-9.5, over/under 52.5)
With the two best offensive minds in the game playing one another: Bet the over. The Niners will be wearing white in this game meaning Marquise Goodwin’s 4.17 40 yard dash time will enhance at least .1 seconds making him a must-start on all fantasy platforms. Not to mention the game will be at home in Santa Clara, CA. This season the average total at Levis stadium is 51.5, which means absolutely nothing except that this game is going to be in the 60 point range (Law of regression to the mean) If I were Vegas I would set the over/ under in the 70’s because this game has Big 12 no defense football written all over it.
Bills Vs. Colts (-7.5, over/under 43.5)
Derek Anderson? Never heard of him, but if he has been lower on the depth chart than a quarterback who throws interceptions 12.2% of the time he throws the ball you better not be the sly son of a bitch who bets on him. Andrew Luck at home after losing in a blow out to the Jets has an arbitrage line written all over it. The public is going to be down on the Colts and still high on the Bills from that inexplicable win against the Minnesota Viking. Take out a second mortgage on the house, take the Colts in a blowout.
Panthers vs. Eagles (-4.5, over/under 44.5)
The Eagles are still on a Super Bowl hangover and have been erratic all season long. No one can get a beat on them. The Action Network is reporting 53% of the public is betting the Eagles, and I don’t blame them. The Eagles played a great prime time game against the worst team in the NFL, and now everyone thinks they are back to their super bowl form. NOT!
Let’s not forget the Eagles lost to the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Bucs. Two all-time bad teams. The Panthers, on the other hand, have the best front 7 in the game and a healthier and more handsome quarterback in Cam Newton. One alarming statistic is that the Panthers have not yet won on the road this year, but by the law of regression to the mean, they are due for a road victory after winning six games on the road last year including a 33-30 win at Foxboro. Give me the points, give me the Panthers winning outright.
Browns vs. Bucs ( -3.5, over/under 51.5)
Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield in Tampa playing a college grade defense. This has upset written all over it. Mayfield’s intangibles are off the charts especially when it comes to leadership. After getting embarrassed at home against the Chargers, Mayfield character is in question. I once met Baker at a bar in West Hollywood. When I introduced myself, he gave me a firm handshake and gut-dropping eye contact. It was then that I knew he would one day be a star, “You can’t teach leadership.” – Obama. Baker has always been doubted his whole life and once again in week seven is still seen as an underdog. Don’t buy into it.
I know the Bucs were terrific when doused with Fitzmagic the first few games of the year. But this is a what have you done for me lately league, and they haven’t done a damn thing. Not to mention they are starting a serial sexual assaulter at Quarterback, and that is something I will not stand for! (But probably start him in fantasy this week, but that’s just fantasy, in real life absolutely not!)
Bengals vs. Chiefs (KC -5.5, over/under 58.5)
Bet the over. Vegas has kept pushing the Chiefs over up and up every week except for this one, and I truthfully don’t understand it. The only week the Chiefs haven’t scored over 30 points was when they went to Mile High field and played the Broncos. This is also the single game they didn’t cover the over, but can you blame them? They played Case Keenum who before this week hadn’t scored more than 30 points in a game. And even in their 45 point performance yesterday, 14 points were from the defense and another seven were from an Emmanuel Sanders TD pass. The guy stinks! And to cover an over is a general partnership agreement.
Everyone knows the Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone and Andy ‘Red Rocket’ Dalton will dismantle the secondary with AJ Green and the fastest man alive John Brown. Heck, the Bengals might cover this line on their own. Bet it, bet it, bet it!
LEAD PIPE LOCK
6.5 POINT TEASER: Browns +10, Panthers +11, Colts -1
Lock it in.
volkszn.com 